What rate does Chest Ledger use?
The Fortnite chest probability calculator includes a Pirate Shop Access preset of 1 in 137,500 per opening, approximately 0.00072727%. This figure was reported by Dexerto on November 8, 2026 and attributed to a November 7 statement from Fortnite Status about chests in normal matches.
The referenced Fortnite Status post is the original announcement identified by that report. Chest Ledger could access the report but could not independently retrieve the complete original post during preparation. This is an attributed published preset, not a live game-data feed or a separately measured rate.
Other reward entries in the tracker do not have preloaded drop rates. Their names help organize a personal checklist and are not a complete, verified catalog of every currently obtainable item. For a different reward, mode, or event, select Custom and enter a rate supported by a source relevant to that situation.
The probability formula
Let N be the denominator in “1 in N,” let b be a multiplier, and let n be the number of eligible openings. The calculator models a per-opening probability p = min(1, b / N). With constant, independent trials:
Chance of at least one result = 1 − (1 − p)n
At zero attempts, the chance is zero. At p = 1, one or more attempts gives a modeled chance of 100%. Each input is an assumption about the eligible openings, not a way to change Fortnite.
The calculation uses the chance of missing every attempt, then subtracts that chance from one. Adding percentages directly is only a rough approximation for very small probabilities and will become misleading as the number of attempts grows.
Pirate Shop Access: example chances
These examples apply the reported 1-in-137,500 preset with a multiplier of 1. Percentages use the formula above, rounded to four decimal places, and are not observations from players.
| Eligible openings | At least one result |
|---|---|
| 100 | 0.0727% |
| 1,000 | 0.7246% |
| 10,000 | 7.0146% |
| 100,000 | 51.6776% |
A 50% modeled chance requires about 95,308 openings. The threshold formula is ceil(log(1 − q) / log(1 − p)) for target probability q between zero and one. The calculator also offers 90% and 95% thresholds. Even a 95% modeled chance leaves a 5% chance of no result under the same assumptions.
Why “1 in N” is not a countdown
At a fixed independent rate, a series of misses does not raise the next opening's chance. The next eligible opening still has probability p. The expected waiting time is 1/p attempts in this model; that average is not a deadline, pity counter, or guarantee.
The goal bar is a personal count target. It never implies that a reward unlocks when the bar fills. The calculator's probability threshold is a separate estimate. An observed drop in a small sample does not validate or disprove a rare preset by itself.
Treasure Hours, squad logs, and changing conditions
Epic's Treasure Hunters season announcement describes boosted drops during Treasure Hours. It does not establish a permanent multiplier for every item or every future event. Chest Ledger leaves the multiplier at 1 by default. Enter a different value only when you have checked the applicable announcement.
If rates differ across your recorded openings, one fixed-rate total is not an exact model. Calculate each group separately, then multiply its no-drop probability with those of the other groups before subtracting from one. If eligibility or independence is unknown, the result is a scenario estimate rather than a confirmed game probability.
A squad can log distinct openings manually, but choosing Squads does not create extra attempts. If you already entered the squad's combined openings, do not multiply again by team size. The tool does not determine reward eligibility, sharing rules, or correlations between teammates.
Personal observations versus published drop rates
| Number | Meaning | Limit |
|---|---|---|
| Logged chest total | Openings you manually recorded | May omit or double-count openings |
| Checklist progress | Reward categories marked found | Does not count repeated drops or verify ownership |
| Observed hit rate | Hits divided by eligible trials in a dedicated sample | Needs an explicit hit log; checklist marks cannot supply it |
| Calculator chance | Result of the supplied probability model | Depends on rate, eligibility, and independence assumptions |
Use the Fortnite chest tracker for a consistent count, the counter guide for session and backup steps, and Epic's current announcements to check whether a published rate still applies.